Move the map until she wins
Starts at the poll average, Shapiro +23.3, on the Oct 19, 2026 rolls. A tie needs +7.5 pts over Mastriano everywhere.
Loading the simulator…
Every scenario
Garrity’s margin, points. Only maps built on Trump’s 2024 coalition clear zero.
Where the gap is
| Region | Net votes to find | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Philly suburbs 4 counties | −388,273 → −219,497 | 175,251 |
| Philadelphia 1 county | −361,592 → −310,084 | 61,747 |
| Allegheny 1 county | −223,473 → −127,447 | 92,451 |
| Swing metros 5 counties | −81,122 → +140 | 82,104 |
| Lehigh Valley & Berks 4 counties | −56,841 → +8,169 | 67,264 |
| Pittsburgh ring 5 counties | +28,060 → +121,726 | 92,945 |
| South-central GOP base 6 counties | +46,943 → +146,919 | 96,869 |
| Rural rest 41 counties | +243,603 → +380,075 | 132,710 |
Republican net votes, Mastriano 2022 → the tie path. The bar is what she must add.
What each scenario assumes
| Perfect storm | Trump 2024 shares everywhere, Trump-won counties at 2024 turnout, Harris-won counties at 2022 turnout. | 3,228,351 | 2,919,940 | +4.9 |
| Trump 2024 map | Garrity matches Trump 2024 two-party share in every county, with 2022 turnout rates. | 2,741,837 | 2,622,411 | +2.2 |
| Three fronts | Suburban recovery, rural surge and Philadelphia collapse together; Mastriano 2022 shares and 2022 turnout everywhere else. | 2,910,107 | 2,787,773 | +2.1 |
| Uniform swing | Garrity gains the same share in every county over Mastriano. The swing shown is the smallest that ties the race. | 2,682,124 | 2,682,124 | +0.0 |
| Minimum path | In every county Garrity closes the same fraction of the gap between Mastriano 2022 and Trump 2024. The fraction shown is the smallest that ties the race. | 2,682,124 | 2,682,124 | +0.0 |
| Rural surge | In counties Trump won with 60%+ of the two-party vote, Garrity matches Trump 2024 and turnout hits 2024 presidential levels. Elsewhere 2022 repeats. | 2,742,787 | 3,063,373 | −5.4 |
| Turnout gap only | Mastriano 2022 shares everywhere, but counties he won vote at 2024 presidential rates and counties Shapiro won vote at 2014 rates. | 2,221,133 | 2,626,601 | −8.2 |
| Suburban recovery | Garrity matches Trump 2024 in the four Philly suburbs and Allegheny; Mastriano 2022 shares elsewhere. | 2,435,256 | 2,928,993 | −9.0 |
| Philly collapse | Philadelphia turnout falls to its 2014 rate and votes like 2024 (Harris); everywhere else repeats 2022. | 2,294,977 | 2,960,991 | −12.4 |
| Repeat 2022 | 2022 county shares and turnout rates on the current voter rolls. | 2,281,456 | 3,082,792 | −14.7 |
| Polls today | A uniform swing from 2022 that reproduces the current poll average (Shapiro +23.3). | 2,045,741 | 3,318,508 | −23.3 |
How the model counts
County ballots = 2022 turnout rate × Oct 19, 2026 registration, unless a preset changes the rate. Third-party share stays at 2022. Garrity’s two-party share is the lever; a uniform swing adds the same amount to every county’s 2022 share.
Skill games: about 70,000 machines, about 325,000 regulars; three in four registered, three in five of those vote, 62% already hers. Bloc levers use your rates; vapers are 7.6% of about 10.5M adults (CDC 2024). The presets match scripts/wargame.py.