Vape law
1% switching = 8,000 votesAbout 800,000 Pennsylvania adults vape, and Act 57 just pulled most of their products.
800K adult vapers
Garrity’s path to win
637,012
voters must switch from Shapiro to Garrity to tie at today’s poll averageOpen in simulator
Poll average
Shapiro +23.3
57.1–33.8 · 5 averages, Nov 4
Registered · Nov 2
9,050,559
Democrats +247,948
Gap to tie
+7.5 pts
over Mastriano, every county
Best winning map
Garrity +4.9
Perfect storm
Blocs, sized
All blocsData centers
Four in five Pennsylvanians oppose a data center in their community; one in four approve of Shapiro's handling.
79% oppose a data center in their community. A share, not a headcount, so it is off the vote scale.
Israel and Gaza
1% sitting out = 1,540 votesFour in ten voters under 30 say Shapiro is too supportive of Israel.
154K Arab Americans
Skill games
1% switching = 3,250 votesAbout 70,000 machines went dark on Oct 14; roughly 325,000 regular players lost them.
≈325K regular players
Solid = sourced, hatched = estimate. No source gives a switch rate; set one in the simulator.
Counties to move
All 67- Still to find
- Mastriano 2022 share
| County | 2022 | Needs | Votes to find |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allegheny | 29.7% | 37.9% | 92,601 |
| Montgomery | 29.4% | 36.8% | 63,474 |
| Philadelphia | 13.1% | 19.1% | 61,877 |
| Bucks | 39.2% | 47.8% | 54,683 |
| Westmoreland | 52.3% | 61.8% | 32,217 |
| Delaware | 30.6% | 36.6% | 29,518 |
| York | 52.9% | 60.2% | 29,055 |
| Lancaster | 50.0% | 56.1% | 28,677 |
| Chester | 35.9% | 41.1% | 27,866 |
| Berks | 46.6% | 53.7% | 22,584 |
Votes to find: net votes over a 2022 replay on today’s rolls, on the smallest uniform path to a tie.
Where she has to grow
Maps that win
| Map | Garrity | Shapiro | Garrity margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perfect storm Trump 2024 shares everywhere, Trump-won counties at 2024 turnout, Harris-won counties at 2022 turnout. | 3.2M | 2.9M | +4.9 |
| Trump 2024 map Garrity matches Trump 2024 two-party share in every county, with 2022 turnout rates. | 2.7M | 2.6M | +2.2 |
| Three fronts Suburban recovery, rural surge and Philadelphia collapse together; Mastriano 2022 shares and 2022 turnout everywhere else. | 2.9M | 2.8M | +2.1 |
Mail ballots, 0 days out
By county and ageGOP share of returns
25.2%
21.2% at this point in 2022 (+4.0 pts)
Democratic mail lead
438,199
587,749 in 2022, same day
Returned
1,114,767
as of 11/03/2026
GOP ballots still out
45,484
chase before 8 p.m. Nov 3
Ads on the air
Every adShapiro side · online spend
$7.3M+
400 ads, 61 running
Garrity side · online spend
$840.7K+
110 ads, 42 running
Shapiro's top message
Trump 23%
share of his ads with text
Nobody is running on
3
skill games, vapes, Israel/Gaza
Polls
Wikipedia’s compilation, pulled Nov 4. (D)/(R) = partisan sponsor.
| Average | Through | Shapiro lead |
|---|---|---|
| 270toWin | September 22 – October 21 | +23.2 |
| Decision Desk HQ | through October 21 | +24.1 |
| FiftyPlusOne | through October 21 | +22.9 |
| RealClearPolitics | September 15 – October 18 | +23.8 |
| Silver Bulletin | through October 18 | +22.4 |
| Poll | Field | Sample | Shapiro lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | October 30 – November 1 | 450 LV | +25 |
| ActiVote | October 1–21 | 400 LV | +23 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | October 7–18 | 808 RV | +22 |
| PennLive | October 5–11 | 628 RV | +30 |
| Quinnipiac University | October 1–5 | 1,159 LV | +25 |
| Z to A Research (D) | September 28 – October 1 | 630 LV | +19 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | September 22–30 | 700 LV | +21 |
Money
Campaign finance reports, Jun 9 – Sep 14, 2026.
Cash on hand · Shapiro
$19.9M
Cash on hand · Garrity
$1.4M
TV spending · Shapiro
$13.5M
TV spending · Garrity
$204K