Pennsylvania State House, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball
State Navigate
projection
Caucus spending
v $8M R, June to Oct 19
Battlegrounds
Ballotpedia
Why it matters for a Garrity governorship
The House passed Shapiro's skill-game plan; the Senate never took it up. A Democratic House stays the chamber most likely to push his 52% rate. To flip it, Republicans need nearly all of their targets, like HD-12 and HD-72, while also holding the Bucks seats where they trail.
Skill-game money is spread thin here: the Pace-O-Matic-linked Operators for Skill PAC has given $1.137M to 157 state candidates this cycle, split about evenly between the parties. Its biggest House checks went to leaders in safe seats (Bradford $100K, Burgos $46K); most battleground candidates got $500 to $14K.
Democrat-held, Republican targets
| District | Race | Margins and polls |
|---|---|---|
| HD-12 | Dukes (D) v Timko (R) | Trump +18; Dukes won the August special by 98 votes |
| HD-72 | Burns (D) v Rice (R) | Trump +31; decided by 929 votes last time |
| HD-16 | Matzie (D) v Costanza (R) | — |
| HD-118 | Haddock (D) v Lombardo (R) | — |
| HD-121 | McClay (D) v Harostock (R) | Open seat |
| HD-172 | Dougherty (D) v Quinlan (R) | — |
| HD-45 | Bloam (D) v Julius (R) | Open seat |
| HD-144 | Munroe (D) v Murphy (R) | State Navigate, Aug: Munroe +12 |
Republican-held, Democratic targets
| District | Race | Margins and polls |
|---|---|---|
| HD-142 | Hogan (R) v Egan (D) | State Navigate, Oct: Egan 50–46 |
| HD-143 | Labs (R) v Hayes (D) v Gambino (FI) | State Navigate, Oct: Hayes 48–45 |
| HD-160 | C. Williams (R) v Moro (D) | The only Republican-held seat Harris won |
| HD-18 | Tomlinson (R) v Allen (D) | — |
| HD-137 | Emrick (R) v Warren (D) | — |
| HD-131 | Mackenzie (R) v Sabih (D) | — |
| HD-187 | Day (R) v Cuevas (D) | — |
| HD-41 | B. Miller (R) v Chambers (D) | — |
| HD-88 | Clark (R) v Agerton (D) | Open seat |
| HD-147 | Scheuren (R) v Burke (D) | — |
| HD-13 | Lawrence (R) v Alvarino (D) | — |
| HD-28 | Shaffer (R) v Ferderber (D) | — |
| HD-40 | Mihalek (R) v Lloyd (D) | — |
| HD-44 | Gaydos (R) v Haas (D) | — |
Also on the maps as second-tier races: HD-3 (Erie), HD-30 (Allegheny), HD-82 (Centre), HD-145 (Upper Bucks; State Navigate, Oct: Staats 49–46), HD-170 (Philadelphia).
Maps
Caveats: legislative polls are small samples, and their margins of error cover most of these leads. Sources: Spotlight PA on legislature control, Ballotpedia's 24 battlegrounds, PoliticsPA races to watch, State Navigate polling, Operators for Skill PAC donations. Maps: Census TIGER 2024 House districts. As of Nov 2, 2026.