electmepresident.now

Markets · as of Oct 25, 2026, 01:17 UTC

Pennsylvania governor 2026: what the markets say

Both venues put Shapiro at about 97.5% to win. Public polls average a 23.3-point Shapiro lead. Even with a fat-tailed error model, that leaves Garrity a 1.5% chance, below the 2.4% the markets charge. The Garrity book is thin: $2,868 of buying would lift Kalshi’s Garrity price to 5¢.

The charts and tables are rebuilt every hour from the public Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt and Manifold APIs; this build read them at 01:17 UTC on Oct 25, 2026. The prices just below refresh every minute. Election Day is Nov 3, 2026.

Prices as of 25 Oct 2026 01:17 UTC

Kalshi

Shapiro 97.4¢

Garrity 2.5¢

Garrity bid 2.4¢ · ask 2.7¢

Polymarket

Shapiro 97.5¢

Garrity 2.2¢

Garrity bid 1.7¢ · ask 2.7¢

PredictIt

Shapiro 97.5¢

Garrity 2.5¢

Garrity bid 2.0¢ · ask 3.0¢

Midpoint of bid and ask; a contract paying $1 if the candidate wins, so cents read as a percent chance.

Shapiro, Kalshi

97.4%

Midpoint of 97.3¢ bid and 97.4¢ ask, a 0.1¢ spread

Garrity, Kalshi

2.5%

Midpoint of 2.4¢ bid and 2.7¢ ask, a 0.3¢ spread

Shapiro, Polymarket

97.5%

Midpoint of 97.1¢ bid and 98.0¢ ask, a 0.9¢ spread

Garrity, Polymarket

2.2%

Midpoint of 1.7¢ bid and 2.7¢ ask, a 1.0¢ spread

Garrity, poll-implied

1.5%

Fat-tailed model on the 1-poll average of Shapiro +23.3; a normal curve gives 0.01%

Market-expected margin

Shapiro +22.0

Points, from Polymarket's margin buckets

Price history

A contract pays $1 if its candidate wins, so its price in cents reads as a percent chance.

Garrity peaked at 12.0¢ on Polymarket on Feb 25, 2026. She is at 2.2¢ now.

Daily price of a Garrity YES contract. Polymarket’s history starts in Oct 15 2025. Kalshi shows the bid/ask midpoint for the last 120 days, because its daily closes are sparse. Dashed lines mark the primary and the debate.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi midpoint
2.5¢5.0¢7.5¢10.0¢12.5¢Oct 2025Dec 2025Feb 2026Apr 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026PrimaryDebate

Shapiro has not traded below 87% on either venue.

Daily price of a Shapiro YES contract.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi midpoint
90%95%100%Oct 2025Dec 2025Feb 2026Apr 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026PrimaryDebate

The two venues agree to within 6.5 points on every shared day.

Kalshi minus Polymarket, Shapiro price, in points of probability. Above zero, Kalshi is more bullish on Shapiro. Average gap: −0.4 points across 324 days.

−5.0+0.0+5.0Nov 2025Jan 2026Mar 2026May 2026Jul 2026Sep 2026PrimaryDebate

Who is trading

Kalshi publishes daily volume and open interest. Both venues publish every fill.

Garrity’s Kalshi market holds 2.2 times as many contracts as Shapiro’s.

Open interest: contracts outstanding in each market, each paying $1. Garrity’s 549.9K against Shapiro’s 253.4K comes mostly from one day of heavy trading on Aug 7, when 271,252 contracts changed hands.

  • Garrity
  • Shapiro
0200,000400,000Oct 2025Dec 2025Feb 2026Apr 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026PrimaryDebate

Big volume rarely moved the price much.

The 8 days with the most Garrity contracts traded on Kalshi, with the change in Kalshi’s Garrity midpoint from the day before. Aug 7’s 271,252 contracts moved it −0.8¢.

Aug 7, 2026271,2526.7¢−0.8
Oct 10, 202652,2483.1¢+0.6
Oct 21, 202646,7993.2¢−0.2
Oct 19, 202639,7363.8¢+1.6
Oct 16, 202638,9141.9¢−0.1
Jul 22, 202622,2995.8¢−2.8
Oct 24, 202622,1782.6¢+0.0
Oct 13, 202621,2451.7¢−1.1

17 fills in the 24 hours to 01:17 UTC came to $110. 15 of them bet toward Garrity.

Each dot is one fill on either venue. Trades in the Shapiro market are converted to the equivalent Garrity price. Dot area is dollars paid. Kalshi dots are filled and Polymarket dots are hollow. Times are UTC.

  • Bets toward Garrity
  • Bets toward Shapiro
0¢1¢2¢3¢4¢04:0006:0008:0010:0012:0014:0016:0018:0017:21 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 3.0¢, 2,222 contracts, $6717:21 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 2.9¢, 500 contracts, $1514:55 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 2.9¢, 250 contracts, $717:21 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 2.9¢, 250 contracts, $717:21 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 3.0¢, 173 contracts, $516:12 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity NO, toward shapiro. Garrity price 2.5¢, 3 contracts, $309:46 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 2.9¢, 81 contracts, $214:55 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 3.1¢, 46 contracts, $113:04 UTC, Kalshi: Shapiro YES, toward shapiro. Garrity price 2.5¢, 1 contracts, $114:55 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 2.9¢, 19 contracts, $104:45 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 2.9¢, 16 contracts, $014:55 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 3.0¢, 3 contracts, $014:55 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 2.9¢, 1 contracts, $014:55 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 2.9¢, 1 contracts, $017:21 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 2.9¢, 1 contracts, $014:55 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 3.0¢, 0 contracts, $014:55 UTC, Kalshi: Garrity YES, toward garrity. Garrity price 2.9¢, 0 contracts, $0

0 buying bursts put $0 on Garrity, each on both venues at once.

Minutes with at least $300 of buying toward Garrity, with neighboring minutes merged. Hitting Kalshi and Polymarket in the same minute points to one trader or bot. These are small sums: the whole day’s trading was $110.

Nothing matches “”.

How thin the market is

A few hundred dollars moves Garrity's price. Order books change by the minute, so treat these dollar figures as an order of magnitude.

$2,868 of market buying takes Kalshi’s Garrity offer from 2.7¢ to 5¢.

How far the Garrity price moves for each dollar of market orders. Solid lines are offers a buyer would take; dashed lines are bids a seller would hit. Kalshi’s offers come from its NO bids. Shown up to 25¢.

  • Kalshi
  • Polymarket
0¢5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢$0$2,500$5,000$7,500$10,000Kalshi, buying: $4 of market orders reach 2.7¢Kalshi, buying: $11 of market orders reach 2.8¢Kalshi, buying: $11 of market orders reach 2.9¢Kalshi, buying: $41 of market orders reach 3.0¢Kalshi, buying: $53 of market orders reach 3.1¢Kalshi, buying: $82 of market orders reach 3.2¢Kalshi, buying: $90 of market orders reach 3.3¢Kalshi, buying: $210 of market orders reach 3.5¢Kalshi, buying: $210 of market orders reach 3.6¢Kalshi, buying: $212 of market orders reach 3.7¢Kalshi, buying: $609 of market orders reach 3.9¢Kalshi, buying: $1,618 of market orders reach 4.0¢Kalshi, buying: $1,643 of market orders reach 4.3¢Kalshi, buying: $2,868 of market orders reach 4.9¢Kalshi, buying: $2,905 of market orders reach 5.0¢Kalshi, buying: $3,936 of market orders reach 5.1¢Kalshi, buying: $4,466 of market orders reach 5.3¢Kalshi, buying: $7,166 of market orders reach 5.4¢Kalshi, buying: $7,167 of market orders reach 5.9¢Kalshi, buying: $7,344 of market orders reach 6.0¢Kalshi, buying: $7,526 of market orders reach 7.0¢Kalshi, buying: $7,526 of market orders reach 7.9¢Kalshi, buying: $7,536 of market orders reach 8.0¢Kalshi, buying: $7,545 of market orders reach 8.5¢Kalshi, buying: $7,549 of market orders reach 8.6¢Kalshi, buying: $7,651 of market orders reach 9.0¢Kalshi, buying: $7,651 of market orders reach 9.9¢Kalshi, buying: $7,657 of market orders reach 10.0¢Kalshi, buying: $7,667 of market orders reach 11.0¢Kalshi, buying: $7,677 of market orders reach 12.0¢Kalshi, buying: $7,686 of market orders reach 13.0¢Kalshi, buying: $7,692 of market orders reach 14.0¢Kalshi, buying: $7,704 of market orders reach 15.0¢Kalshi, buying: $7,718 of market orders reach 16.0¢Kalshi, buying: $7,723 of market orders reach 17.0¢Kalshi, buying: $7,775 of market orders reach 18.0¢Kalshi, buying: $8,101 of market orders reach 19.0¢Kalshi, buying: $8,201 of market orders reach 20.0¢Kalshi, buying: $8,201 of market orders reach 21.0¢Kalshi, buying: $8,216 of market orders reach 22.0¢Kalshi, selling: $1 of market orders reach 2.4¢Kalshi, selling: $34 of market orders reach 2.3¢Kalshi, selling: $89 of market orders reach 2.2¢Kalshi, selling: $89 of market orders reach 2.1¢Kalshi, selling: $108 of market orders reach 2.0¢Kalshi, selling: $116 of market orders reach 1.9¢Kalshi, selling: $116 of market orders reach 1.7¢Kalshi, selling: $116 of market orders reach 1.6¢Kalshi, selling: $123 of market orders reach 1.5¢Kalshi, selling: $124 of market orders reach 1.4¢Kalshi, selling: $124 of market orders reach 1.3¢Kalshi, selling: $141 of market orders reach 1.2¢Kalshi, selling: $155 of market orders reach 1.1¢Kalshi, selling: $465 of market orders reach 1.0¢Kalshi, selling: $507 of market orders reach 0.9¢Kalshi, selling: $542 of market orders reach 0.8¢Kalshi, selling: $572 of market orders reach 0.7¢Kalshi, selling: $602 of market orders reach 0.6¢Kalshi, selling: $627 of market orders reach 0.5¢Kalshi, selling: $648 of market orders reach 0.4¢Kalshi, selling: $663 of market orders reach 0.3¢Kalshi, selling: $673 of market orders reach 0.2¢Kalshi, selling: $704 of market orders reach 0.1¢Polymarket, buying: $2 of market orders reach 2.7¢Polymarket, buying: $2 of market orders reach 2.8¢Polymarket, buying: $4 of market orders reach 2.9¢Polymarket, buying: $18 of market orders reach 3.0¢Polymarket, buying: $19 of market orders reach 3.1¢Polymarket, buying: $32 of market orders reach 3.2¢Polymarket, buying: $34 of market orders reach 3.3¢Polymarket, buying: $45 of market orders reach 3.7¢Polymarket, buying: $48 of market orders reach 3.8¢Polymarket, buying: $91 of market orders reach 3.9¢Polymarket, buying: $212 of market orders reach 4.0¢Polymarket, buying: $230 of market orders reach 4.4¢Polymarket, buying: $230 of market orders reach 4.7¢Polymarket, buying: $245 of market orders reach 4.9¢Polymarket, buying: $353 of market orders reach 5.0¢Polymarket, buying: $355 of market orders reach 5.1¢Polymarket, buying: $357 of market orders reach 5.4¢Polymarket, buying: $369 of market orders reach 5.9¢Polymarket, buying: $489 of market orders reach 6.0¢Polymarket, buying: $569 of market orders reach 7.0¢Polymarket, buying: $570 of market orders reach 7.1¢Polymarket, buying: $581 of market orders reach 11.1¢Polymarket, buying: $609 of market orders reach 11.2¢Polymarket, buying: $700 of market orders reach 22.8¢Polymarket, buying: $776 of market orders reach 22.9¢Polymarket, selling: $1 of market orders reach 1.7¢Polymarket, selling: $27 of market orders reach 1.6¢Polymarket, selling: $34 of market orders reach 1.4¢Polymarket, selling: $39 of market orders reach 1.2¢Polymarket, selling: $41 of market orders reach 0.6¢Polymarket, selling: $44 of market orders reach 0.5¢Polymarket, selling: $47 of market orders reach 0.4¢Polymarket, selling: $52 of market orders reach 0.3¢Polymarket, selling: $56 of market orders reach 0.2¢Polymarket, selling: $65 of market orders reach 0.1¢Polymarket offersKalshi offers

Selling every Garrity bid down to 1¢ would raise about $504 across both venues.

Market buying needed to lift the Garrity offer to 5¢ and 10¢, and what selling every bid down to 1¢ would raise. Both venues also offer Garrity exposure through the Shapiro NO side, which this leaves out.

Kalshi2.7¢$2,868$7,651$465
Polymarket2.7¢$245$570$39

What the market expects on Nov 3

Polymarket also lists the margin of victory and the number of votes cast. These are small markets: no bucket has traded more than $4,549.

The most likely bucket is Shapiro +25 to 30. The expected margin is Shapiro +22.0.

Polymarket’s margin buckets, each bar the bucket’s price. For comparison, the polls show Polling average Oct 25 +23.3, and Shapiro won 2022 by 14.8. The “Garrity wins” bucket trades at 1.5¢, far below the winner market’s 2.4¢.

R wins: 1.5%1.5%R wins0–5: 8.5%8.5%0–55–10: 4.0%4.0%5–1010–15: 9.7%9.7%10–1515–20: 19.0%19.0%15–2020–25: 23.5%23.5%20–2525–30: 35.5%35.5%25–3030+: 22.0%22.0%30+

Median bucket: Shapiro +20 to 25. Shapiro by 20 or more: 66%. Buckets sum to 123.5%.

The market expects about 5.32 million votes, close to 2022’s 5.37 million.

Polymarket’s turnout buckets, in millions of votes cast for governor.

<4M: 1.3%1.3%<4M4M-4.5M: 2.9%2.9%4M-4.5M4.5M-5M: 20.5%20.5%4.5M-5M5M-5.5M: 51.0%51.0%5M-5.5M5.5M-6M: 21.4%21.4%5.5M-6M6M-6.5M: 7.3%7.3%6M-6.5M6.5M+: 2.7%2.7%6.5M+

Chance turnout beats 2022: 42%. Buckets sum to 107.1%.

Pennsylvania ranks 33 of 36 for the year's closest governor's race, at 0.1%.

Polymarket’s “Closest Governor’s Race?” market, the top 12 states by price, with Pennsylvania added at its rank. Traders put almost no weight on it being the closest race.

  • 1. Georgia17.3%
  • 2. Kansas10.4%
  • 3. Texas10.3%
  • 4. Nevada10.2%
  • 5. Florida10.1%
  • 6. Ohio9.7%
  • 7. Wisconsin6.6%
  • 8. Tennessee6.6%
  • 9. Arkansas6.0%
  • 10. Nebraska5.3%
  • 11. Vermont5.0%
  • 12. Iowa3.8%
  • 33. Pennsylvania0.1%

Quotes and polls

Each venue’s spread is 0.1¢ to 1.0¢.

Price of a YES contract. A gap between venues is only an arbitrage when it beats Kalshi’s fee of about 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per contract.

Kalshi Garrity2.4¢2.7¢2.5¢0.3¢3.0¢
Kalshi Shapiro97.3¢97.4¢97.4¢0.1¢97.5¢
Polymarket Garrity1.7¢2.7¢2.2¢1.0¢2.3¢
Polymarket Shapiro97.1¢98.0¢97.5¢0.9¢97.3¢

The 1 polls have Shapiro ahead by 23.3 to 23.3 points.

Share of the vote and lead in points. Polling average (Oct 25) is average of 5 polling averages (270towin, decision desk hq, fiftyplusone, realclearpolitics, silver bulletin).

Oct 25, 2026Polling averageAverage of 5 polling averages (270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, RealClearPolitics, Silver Bulletin)57.1%33.8%+23.3
Nov 8, 20222022 result (Shapiro vs Mastriano)Actual vote56.5%41.7%+14.8

Other venues

PredictIt and Manifold are the only other venues listing this race. Smarkets and Bovada have no Pennsylvania governor market, and the Apify scrapers for Kalshi and Polymarket only repackage the free APIs used above.

Both price a Shapiro or Democratic win at 98.0¢ (PredictIt) and 98.0¢ (Manifold).

PredictIt is real money with an $850 cap per contract. Manifold is play money with a handful of traders, so read it as a crowd guess.

VenueMarketOutcomePriceTradersMoney
PredictItWhich party will win the 2026 election for governor of Pennsylvania?Democratic98.0¢—Real money ($850 cap per contract)
PredictItWhich party will win the 2026 election for governor of Pennsylvania?Republican3.0¢—Real money ($850 cap per contract)
ManifoldWill Josh Shapiro get 60.00% or more of the vote in 2026 Pennsylvania Governor election?Yes75.0¢17Play money (mana)
ManifoldWill Josh Shapiro be reelectedYes98.0¢11Play money (mana)

How the numbers are worked out

Poll-implied chance. The model averages the 1 polls’ leads and assumes the result can miss that average by a typical 6 points, about one standard deviation for governor races. A normal bell curve puts a Garrity win at 0.01%. Real misses have fatter tails (a scandal, a health event, a correlated polling error), so the headline figure uses a Student-t curve with 3 degrees of freedom on the same 6-point scale. The gap between that figure and the market price is the usual longshot premium: holding Shapiro near certainty ties up money for a gain of a few cents, and Kalshi’s fee takes roughly a tenth of it.

Expected margin and turnout. Each bucket’s price is divided by the sum of all bucket prices, then multiplied by the bucket’s midpoint. Open-ended buckets use a midpoint 2.5 points (or 0.25 million votes) past their edge.

Order-book depth. Order books change by the minute. These were read once at the snapshot time, so treat the dollar figures as an order of magnitude. The daily price history for Oct 25 is the latest daily candle, so it can differ from the snapshot quotes above.

Sources. Kalshi Trade API (GOVPARTYPA-26); Polymarket Gamma, CLOB and Data APIs; PredictIt (market 8412) and Manifold; the polling average compiled on Wikipedia from five aggregators; 2022 results as reported. See the data page for downloads.