Field plan
GOP mail ballots out
chase before 8 p.m. Nov 3
Republicans, no 2024 vote
of 3.7M registered
Trump voters Mastriano lost
2024 Trump minus 2022 Mastriano
Don't know Garrity yet
F&M, Oct 7–18
Who can close the gap
- 1,272,767 net votes to tie
- Net votes if all of them came over
| Pool | People | Net votes |
|---|---|---|
| Persuade Voted Oz for Senate, not Mastriano, in 2022 | 248,754 | 497,508 2 net each |
| Chase Republican mail ballots not yet returned | 117,714 | 117,714 1 net each |
| Wake Registered Republicans who did not vote in 2024 | 615,556 | 615,556 1 net each |
| Bring back Trump 2024 voters Mastriano never got | 1,304,704 | 1,304,704 1 net each, overlaps the rows above |
Net votes to tie at today’s poll average: 636,384 switchers, or twice that in new voters. No single pool closes it alone. The pools overlap, so they do not add.
Who doesn’t vote
| Age | Midterm 2022 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| 18 to 24 | 40% | 54% |
| 25 to 34 | 48.2% | 62.4% |
| 35 to 44 | 56.1% | 68.8% |
| 45 to 64 | 65.5% | 74.9% |
| 65+ | 71.3% | 75.4% |
Share of citizens who voted, Census CPS. Midterms lose the young first: under 35, fewer than half voted in 2022. Registered Republicans voted at 83% in 2024, Democrats at 76% (DOS vote history).
Where she is closest
| Group | Shapiro | Garrity |
|---|---|---|
| Latino | 47 | 53 |
| Rural | 51 | 49 |
| 50-64 | 53 | 47 |
| HS | 55 | 45 |
| White | 57 | 43 |
| 65+ | 60 | 40 |
| Suburban | 62 | 38 |
| 30-49 | 62 | 38 |
| College | 63 | 37 |
ActiVote, Oct 1–21, 400 likely voters, two-way. An opt-in app panel with small subgroups: read as direction, not size. No major poll has published the vote by region.
Where to spend
- Largest market
- Votes to find
| TV market | Share | Persuade | Wake | Chase | TV filings, S : G | Lead with |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 8 counties | 37% | 91.6K | 206.1K | 47.3K | 277 : 19 | Property taxes, Data centers, Israel and Gaza |
| Pittsburgh 13 counties | 27% | 64.8K | 121.6K | 23.5K | 346 : 50 | Data centers, Israel and Gaza, Property taxes |
| Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York 10 counties | 15% | 47.6K | 119.2K | 20.6K | 286 : 46 | Property taxes, Data centers, Israel and Gaza |
| Wilkes-Barre-Scranton 17 counties | 11% | 21.2K | 84.3K | 13.5K | 417 : 33 | Vape law, Data centers, Property taxes |
| Johnstown-Altoona-State College 10 counties | 6% | 13.9K | 43K | 7.3K | 76 : 29 | Vape law, Israel and Gaza, Property taxes |
| Erie 3 counties | 3% | 8K | 22K | 3K | 99 : 30 | Israel and Gaza, Vape law |
Share of the votes Garrity must find, from the tie model. TV filings: documents in the stations’ FCC political files, Shapiro to Garrity. No public source gives ad rates, so cost per vote is not shown.
What lands, by region
| F&M region | Shapiro job good | Poor | Finances worse | Trump hurt them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia & Southeast | 55% | 12% | 45% | 71% |
| Northeast | 39% | 26% | 43% | 63% |
| Allegheny & Southwest | 44% | 29% | 48% | 57% |
| Northwest | 34% | 33% | 43% | 43% |
| Central | 36% | 29% | 45% | 50% |
- Bills first. 53% call energy and affordability the most urgent issue; 20% data centers; 3% skill games (Bravo, September).
- Data centers cut across party. 64% say they will do more harm than good, 72% of independents (Quinnipiac, Oct 1–5). Voters still trust Shapiro more on the issue, so it works best paired with a local project they can see.
- Every power bill went up. Each utility’s price to compare rose between 21% and 30% from May 2025 to June 2026 (PUC). It is the one message that fits every county.
- Weak in the middle. In the Northeast, Northwest and Central regions fewer than two in five rate Shapiro excellent or good; that is where a contrast ad has room.
Persuasion pool
Power prices
| Utility | May 2025 | June 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duquesne Light main utility in 2 counties | 10.85¢ | 14.14¢ | +30% |
| West Penn Power main utility in 11 counties | 9.48¢ | 12.07¢ | +27% |
| PECO main utility in 5 counties | 9.24¢ | 11.76¢ | +27% |
| Met-Ed main utility in 5 counties | 11.01¢ | 13.95¢ | +27% |
| Penelec main utility in 22 counties | 10.47¢ | 13.14¢ | +25% |
| PPL main utility in 20 counties | 10.77¢ | 13.15¢ | +22% |
| Penn Power main utility in 2 counties | 11.17¢ | 13.48¢ | +21% |
Residential price to compare, cents per kWh, PA PUC.
Data centers people can see
Announced, proposed, approved or under construction; rejected and withdrawn projects left out.
Counties
| Allegheny | Pittsburgh | 92,451 | 30,719 | 50,111 | 9,519 | Data centers · Israel and Gaza |
| Montgomery | Philadelphia | 63,362 | 21,788 | 30,724 | 8,793 | Data centers · Property taxes |
| Philadelphia | Philadelphia | 61,747 | 13,093 | 45,716 | 2,804 | Israel and Gaza |
| Bucks | Philadelphia | 54,616 | 18,358 | 30,161 | 10,283 | Data centers · Property taxes |
| Westmoreland | Pittsburgh | 32,202 | 10,434 | 17,306 | 4,772 | Data centers |
| Delaware | Philadelphia | 29,460 | 10,442 | 25,741 | 5,349 | Property taxes · Israel and Gaza |
| York | Harrisburg | 29,024 | 11,009 | 31,086 | 6,067 | Data centers · Property taxes |
| Lancaster | Harrisburg | 28,633 | 12,758 | 28,292 | 4,265 | Data centers · Property taxes |
| Chester | Philadelphia | 27,813 | 11,435 | 23,084 | 6,859 | Data centers · Property taxes |
| Berks | Philadelphia | 22,550 | 5,834 | 18,948 | 3,967 | Property taxes |
| Lehigh | Philadelphia | 20,739 | 5,751 | 16,297 | 5,354 | Data centers · Israel and Gaza |
| Luzerne | Wilkes-Barre | 20,719 | 5,652 | 17,631 | 4,335 | Data centers · Vape law |
| Erie | Erie | 20,243 | 6,074 | 13,791 | 2,076 | Israel and Gaza · Vape law |
| Washington | Pittsburgh | 18,939 | 5,285 | 9,981 | 1,939 | — |
| Northampton | Philadelphia | 17,776 | 4,932 | 15,459 | 3,845 | Data centers · Property taxes |
| Lackawanna | Wilkes-Barre | 17,329 | 3,837 | 9,893 | 1,366 | Data centers · Vape law |
| Cumberland | Harrisburg | 17,216 | 7,383 | 14,478 | 2,842 | Data centers · Israel and Gaza |
| Butler | Pittsburgh | 16,705 | 5,622 | 10,525 | 2,236 | Property taxes |
| Dauphin | Harrisburg | 16,550 | 6,561 | 14,068 | 2,577 | Data centers · Property taxes |
| Beaver | Pittsburgh | 14,978 | 3,995 | 7,169 | 1,010 | Data centers · Electric bills |
| Cambria | Johnstown | 10,956 | 3,466 | 6,457 | 1,469 | Vape law |
| Schuylkill | Wilkes-Barre | 10,196 | 2,285 | 7,954 | 935 | Vape law |
| Fayette | Pittsburgh | 10,121 | 2,069 | 6,731 | 1,127 | — |
| Lebanon | Harrisburg | 8,794 | 3,292 | 8,375 | 1,266 | Property taxes |
| Lawrence | Pittsburgh | 7,516 | 1,913 | 4,134 | 698 | Israel and Gaza |
| Centre | Johnstown | 7,263 | 2,701 | 8,409 | 1,434 | Israel and Gaza · Property taxes |
| Adams | Harrisburg | 6,944 | 2,220 | 6,804 | 1,291 | Property taxes |
| Blair | Johnstown | 6,895 | 2,391 | 7,688 | 1,809 | Vape law |
| Franklin | Harrisburg | 6,258 | 2,088 | 9,366 | 1,150 | Property taxes |
| Monroe | Wilkes-Barre | 6,199 | 1,142 | 9,414 | 1,834 | Vape law · Property taxes |
| Indiana | Pittsburgh | 5,690 | 1,590 | 4,075 | 691 | Data centers · Israel and Gaza |
| Armstrong | Pittsburgh | 5,383 | 1,156 | 3,754 | 469 | — |
| Clearfield | Johnstown | 5,186 | 1,423 | 4,657 | 414 | Vape law |
| Crawford | Erie | 5,040 | 1,451 | 5,381 | 555 | — |
| Mercer | Youngstown | 4,831 | 776 | 6,246 | 646 | — |
| Somerset | Johnstown | 4,551 | 1,405 | 4,560 | 465 | — |
| Northumberland | Wilkes-Barre | 4,542 | 1,898 | 5,936 | 470 | Vape law |
| Carbon | Wilkes-Barre | 4,342 | 716 | 4,296 | 469 | Property taxes |
| Lycoming | Wilkes-Barre | 4,296 | 1,416 | 5,894 | 627 | Vape law |
| Perry | Harrisburg | 3,534 | 1,028 | 2,838 | 529 | Property taxes |
| Columbia | Wilkes-Barre | 3,374 | 871 | 3,381 | 397 | Vape law · Israel and Gaza |
| Venango | Pittsburgh | 3,311 | 665 | 2,973 | 505 | Vape law |
| Greene | Pittsburgh | 2,845 | 642 | 2,318 | 249 | Data centers |
| Mifflin | Harrisburg | 2,734 | 803 | 2,744 | 401 | Vape law |
| Clarion | Pittsburgh | 2,732 | 601 | 2,225 | 243 | Israel and Gaza |
| Wayne | Wilkes-Barre | 2,663 | 557 | 3,629 | 771 | Data centers · Vape law |
| Bradford | Wilkes-Barre | 2,649 | 504 | 4,115 | 486 | Vape law |
| Jefferson | Johnstown | 2,539 | 706 | 3,170 | 286 | — |
| Huntingdon | Johnstown | 2,318 | 456 | 2,915 | 511 | Vape law |
| Bedford | Johnstown | 2,315 | 756 | 3,243 | 707 | — |
| Elk | Johnstown | 2,300 | 531 | 1,555 | 151 | — |
| Clinton | Wilkes-Barre | 2,214 | 279 | 1,989 | 253 | Vape law · Israel and Gaza |
| Warren | Erie | 2,131 | 471 | 2,862 | 325 | — |
| Susquehanna | Wilkes-Barre | 1,997 | 367 | 2,621 | 432 | Vape law |
| Pike | New York | 1,817 | 421 | 4,788 | 969 | Property taxes · Vape law |
| Wyoming | Wilkes-Barre | 1,670 | 372 | 1,623 | 176 | Property taxes |
| Snyder | Wilkes-Barre | 1,652 | 442 | 2,006 | 297 | Israel and Gaza · Vape law |
| Juniata | Harrisburg | 1,624 | 414 | 1,167 | 196 | — |
| Union | Wilkes-Barre | 1,523 | 504 | 2,424 | 416 | Israel and Gaza · Vape law |
| Montour | Wilkes-Barre | 1,081 | 291 | 1,097 | 166 | — |
| Tioga | Elmira (Corning) | 1,064 | 148 | 3,021 | 337 | Vape law |
| McKean | Buffalo | 1,054 | 0 | 2,991 | 385 | — |
| Fulton | Washington, DC (Hagerstown, MD) | 554 | 79 | 969 | 193 | — |
| Potter | Buffalo | 452 | 251 | 1,277 | 155 | — |
| Sullivan | Wilkes-Barre | 437 | 100 | 415 | 42 | — |
| Forest | Pittsburgh | 388 | 94 | 296 | 27 | — |
| Cameron | Johnstown | 314 | 47 | 312 | 32 | — |
Each indicator divided by its statewide rate; messages at 1.15× or more, strongest first, two max. A live data-center project always counts.
Sources: PA DOS precinct returns (2022, 2024) and 2024 vote history; DOS mail ballot files; Census CPS November 2022 and 2024; ACS 2024 and County Business Patterns 2023; PA PUC; FCC political files; F&M (Oct 7–18), Quinnipiac (Oct 1–5), ActiVote (Oct 1–21), Bravo Group (Sept 16–22). TV markets from the FCC’s 2016 county list. Pools are net counts by county, not individual voters.