Pennsylvania State Senate, 2026
On the ballot
even-numbered: 12 R-held, 13 D-held
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Oct 16
State Navigate
projection
Ads, top five races
v $12.3M D (AdImpact)
Why it matters for a Garrity governorship
The Senate's Republican leaders have run the skill-game fight so far: the Oct 21 legalization deal fell apart when Senate Republicans could not get the votes. A Republican Senate has floated rates from 16% to 35%, or a per-machine fee close to Garrity's $500 a month; a Democratic Senate would push toward Shapiro's 52%. The tiebreak belongs to the Lieutenant Governor, so a 25–25 chamber goes to whichever ticket wins: Davis with Shapiro, or Richey with Garrity.
Watch Bucks County first. If Democrats take SD-6 and SD-16 and hold SD-24, and Republicans flip SD-36, the chamber ties 25–25.
Battlegrounds
Polls and ratings are State Navigate's (ratings as listed on Wikipedia, Oct 12). Money is cycle totals raised, not cash on hand.
| District | Held | Race | Poll | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-6 | R | Frank Farry (R, inc.) v Eileen Albillar (D) | Albillar 49–46 (Oct 9–11) | Lean D flip |
| SD-16 | R | Jarrett Coleman (R, inc.) v Mark Pinsley (D) | Pinsley 49–46 (Oct 10–14) | Lean D flip |
| SD-24 | R | Tracy Pennycuick (R, inc.) v Chris Thomas (D) | Thomas +2 (September) | Likely D flip |
| SD-40 | R | Rosemary Brown (R, inc.) v Brian Wrightson (D) | Brown 47–44 (September) | Tilt D flip |
| SD-36 | D | James Malone (D, inc.) v Tom Jones (R) | Jones 49–47 (October) | Tilt R flip |
| SD-14 | D | Nick Miller (D) v Omy Maldonado (R) | — | — |
| SD-38 | D | Lindsey Williams (D) v Thomas West (R) | — | — |
| SD-46 | R | Camera Bartolotta (R) v Jodie Borello (I) | — | Likely R |
Maps
Caveats: legislative polls are small samples, and their margins of error cover most of these leads. Recent Pennsylvania polls have tended to underestimate Republicans. Money figures are contributions reported in 2025–26 (PADPAC, Pennsylvania Files, TransparencyUSA), not cash on hand, and leave out caucus and outside spending. Sources: Spotlight PA races to watch, Inquirer on Senate control, State Navigate polling, Wikipedia, PADPAC preview, Pennsylvania Files (SD-24, SD-36, SD-40), TransparencyUSA (SD-16), Operators for Skill PAC donations, PennLive on the skill-game deal. Maps: Census TIGER 2024 Senate districts. As of Nov 2, 2026.