Counties · South-central GOP base
Lancaster County
Lancaster has 366,443 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 4.1% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 69,650, down from 72,388 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 5 other counties as “South-central GOP base.”
Registered now
366,443
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
69,650
D 31.2% · R 50.2% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
+454
+0.1% from 365,989
Inactive
8.3%
336,145 active, 30,298 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here fell from 51.1% to 50.2% and the Democratic share fell from 31.4% to 31.2%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 31.2%
- Republicans 50.2%
- Other and no party 18.6%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 30.9%
- Republicans 50.7%
- Other and no party 18.4%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 31.4%
- Republicans 51.1%
- Other and no party 17.5%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 114,278 | 183,928 | 68,237 | 366,443 |
| May 2026 primary | 112,208 | 183,859 | 66,674 | 362,741 |
| Nov 2024 election | 114,763 | 187,151 | 64,075 | 365,989 |
Republicans lead by 69,650, down from 71,651 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 63.5% of Lancaster's registered voters cast a governor vote, 3.1 points above the state. In 2024 it was 79.0%, 2.4 points above the state.
- Lancaster
- Statewide
Results by year
Mastriano carried Lancaster by 1.7 points in 2022, and Trump by 15.9 in 2024. Republicans carried it in all 6 elections.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 57,594 (41%) | Corbett | 83,179 (59%) | 0 | Corbett +18.2 | 311,498 | 45.2% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 91,093 (38%) | Trump | 137,914 (57%) | 12,105 | Trump +19.4 | 335,791 | 71.8% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 96,040 (47%) | Wagner | 102,229 (51%) | 3,955 | Wagner +3.1 | 329,492 | 61.4% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 115,847 (41%) | Trump | 160,209 (57%) | 4,183 | Trump +15.8 | 354,296 | 79.1% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 108,233 (48%) | Mastriano | 112,040 (50%) | 3,995 | Mastriano +1.7 | 352,895 | 63.5% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 120,119 (42%) | Trump | 166,261 (57%) | 2,877 | Trump +15.9 | 365,989 | 79.0% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 56.1% of the ballot in Lancaster. That is 6.1 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 1.4 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
50.0%
Wagner 2018 50.6% · Corbett 2014 59.1%
Trump 2024
57.5%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
56.1%
57.1% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+6.1 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+28,633
Over a 2022 replay, 3.6% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro lost Lancaster by 3,807 votes. At the target, on about 232,878 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 32,586 votes. That is 28,633 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Lancaster is 291,776, against 289,257 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That did not happen to a large degree here: no four-year span saw the roll fall 5% or more while votes held within 3%. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.