Counties · Swing metros
Lackawanna County
Lackawanna has 150,761 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 1.7% of the state's roll. Democrats lead by 25,074, down from 26,902 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 4 other counties as “Swing metros.”
Registered now
150,761
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Democratic lead
25,074
D 51.3% · R 34.7% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−188
−0.1% from 150,949
Inactive
8.6%
137,839 active, 12,922 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here held at 34.7% and the Democratic share fell from 52.5% to 51.3%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 51.3%
- Republicans 34.7%
- Other and no party 14.0%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 51.2%
- Republicans 35.1%
- Other and no party 13.7%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 52.5%
- Republicans 34.7%
- Other and no party 12.9%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 77,385 | 52,311 | 21,065 | 150,761 |
| May 2026 primary | 76,257 | 52,281 | 20,431 | 148,969 |
| Nov 2024 election | 79,207 | 52,305 | 19,437 | 150,949 |
Democrats lead by 25,074, up from 23,976 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 60.8% of Lackawanna's registered voters cast a governor vote, 0.4 points above the state. In 2024 it was 77.2%, 0.6 points above the state.
- Lackawanna
- Statewide
Results by year
Shapiro carried Lackawanna by 24.5 points in 2022, and Harris by 2.8 in 2024. Democrats carried it in all 6 elections.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 41,680 (70%) | Corbett | 18,081 (30%) | 0 | Wolf +39.5 | 146,655 | 40.8% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 51,983 (50%) | Trump | 48,384 (47%) | 3,089 | Clinton +3.5 | 148,104 | 69.8% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 54,237 (65%) | Wagner | 28,616 (34%) | 1,060 | Wolf +30.5 | 143,610 | 58.4% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 61,991 (54%) | Trump | 52,334 (45%) | 1,085 | Biden +8.4 | 149,389 | 77.3% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 54,442 (61%) | Mastriano | 32,697 (37%) | 1,704 | Shapiro +24.5 | 146,125 | 60.8% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 59,510 (51%) | Trump | 56,261 (48%) | 819 | Harris +2.8 | 150,949 | 77.2% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 46.3% of the ballot in Lackawanna. That is 9.5 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 2.0 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
36.8%
Wagner 2018 34.1% · Corbett 2014 30.3%
Trump 2024
48.3%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
46.3%
47.2% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+9.5 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+17,329
Over a 2022 replay, 2.2% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro won Lackawanna by 21,745 votes. At the target, on about 91,662 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would still lose the county by 5,106 votes. That is 17,329 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Lackawanna is 117,260, against 116,590 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That did not happen to a large degree here: no four-year span saw the roll fall 5% or more while votes held within 3%. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.