Counties · Rural rest
Lawrence County
Lawrence has 57,421 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 0.6% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 10,413, up from 9,255 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 40 other counties as “Rural rest.”
Registered now
57,421
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
10,413
D 34.3% · R 52.5% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−1,049
−1.8% from 58,470
Inactive
7.3%
53,226 active, 4,195 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here rose from 51.5% to 52.5% and the Democratic share fell from 35.7% to 34.3%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 34.3%
- Republicans 52.5%
- Other and no party 13.2%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 34.4%
- Republicans 52.6%
- Other and no party 13.0%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 35.7%
- Republicans 51.5%
- Other and no party 12.8%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 19,718 | 30,131 | 7,572 | 57,421 |
| May 2026 primary | 19,708 | 30,166 | 7,484 | 57,358 |
| Nov 2024 election | 20,877 | 30,132 | 7,461 | 58,470 |
Republicans lead by 10,413, down from 10,458 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 63.9% of Lawrence's registered voters cast a governor vote, 3.5 points above the state. In 2024 it was 80.6%, 3.9 points above the state.
- Lawrence
- Statewide
Results by year
Mastriano carried Lawrence by 9.9 points in 2022, and Trump by 33.8 in 2024. Democrats carried it in 1 of 6 elections and Republicans in 5.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 11,996 (52%) | Corbett | 11,166 (48%) | 0 | Wolf +3.6 | 59,149 | 39.2% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 14,009 (34%) | Trump | 25,428 (62%) | 1,316 | Trump +28.0 | 57,049 | 71.4% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 15,035 (47%) | Wagner | 16,714 (52%) | 492 | Wagner +5.2 | 54,759 | 58.9% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 15,978 (35%) | Trump | 29,597 (64%) | 501 | Trump +29.6 | 57,467 | 80.2% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 15,918 (44%) | Mastriano | 19,471 (54%) | 656 | Mastriano +9.9 | 56,378 | 63.9% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 15,440 (33%) | Trump | 31,347 (67%) | 323 | Trump +33.8 | 58,470 | 80.6% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 64.3% of the ballot in Lawrence. That is 10.2 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 2.2 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
54.0%
Wagner 2018 51.8% · Corbett 2014 48.2%
Trump 2024
66.5%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
64.3%
65.5% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+10.2 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+7,516
Over a 2022 replay, 0.9% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro lost Lawrence by 3,553 votes. At the target, on about 36,712 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 11,134 votes. That is 7,516 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Lawrence is 47,391, against 47,110 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That did not happen to a large degree here: no four-year span saw the roll fall 5% or more while votes held within 3%. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.