Counties · Rural rest
Armstrong County
Armstrong has 43,710 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 0.5% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 17,074, up from 16,566 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 40 other counties as “Rural rest.”
Registered now
43,710
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
17,074
D 24.4% · R 63.4% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−961
−2.2% from 44,671
Inactive
5.8%
41,177 active, 2,533 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here rose from 62.6% to 63.4% and the Democratic share fell from 25.6% to 24.4%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 24.4%
- Republicans 63.4%
- Other and no party 12.2%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 24.5%
- Republicans 63.4%
- Other and no party 12.0%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 25.6%
- Republicans 62.6%
- Other and no party 11.8%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 10,647 | 27,721 | 5,342 | 43,710 |
| May 2026 primary | 10,696 | 27,646 | 5,236 | 43,578 |
| Nov 2024 election | 11,418 | 27,984 | 5,269 | 44,671 |
Republicans lead by 17,074, up from 16,950 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 66.3% of Armstrong's registered voters cast a governor vote, 5.9 points above the state. In 2024 it was 83.1%, 6.5 points above the state.
- Armstrong
- Statewide
Results by year
Mastriano carried Armstrong by 31.3 points in 2022, and Trump by 53.2 in 2024. Republicans carried it in all 6 elections.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 7,195 (38%) | Corbett | 11,520 (62%) | 0 | Corbett +23.1 | 41,135 | 45.5% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 7,178 (23%) | Trump | 23,484 (74%) | 956 | Trump +51.6 | 42,552 | 74.3% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 8,839 (36%) | Wagner | 15,373 (62%) | 431 | Wagner +26.5 | 41,350 | 59.6% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 8,457 (23%) | Trump | 27,489 (76%) | 424 | Trump +52.3 | 44,826 | 81.1% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 9,523 (33%) | Mastriano | 18,419 (65%) | 515 | Mastriano +31.3 | 42,931 | 66.3% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 8,553 (23%) | Trump | 28,296 (76%) | 270 | Trump +53.2 | 44,671 | 83.1% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 74.0% of the ballot in Armstrong. That is 9.3 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 2.2 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
64.7%
Wagner 2018 62.4% · Corbett 2014 61.6%
Trump 2024
76.2%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
74.0%
75.4% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+9.3 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+5,383
Over a 2022 replay, 0.7% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro lost Armstrong by 8,896 votes. At the target, on about 28,973 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 14,440 votes. That is 5,383 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Armstrong is 37,052, against 37,119 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That did not happen to a large degree here: no four-year span saw the roll fall 5% or more while votes held within 3%. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.