Counties · Pittsburgh ring
Butler County
Butler has 144,292 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 1.6% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 43,479, up from 43,382 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 4 other counties as “Pittsburgh ring.”
Registered now
144,292
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
43,479
D 27.4% · R 57.6% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−1,428
−1.0% from 145,720
Inactive
6.5%
134,844 active, 9,448 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here held at 57.6% and the Democratic share fell from 27.8% to 27.4%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 27.4%
- Republicans 57.6%
- Other and no party 15.0%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 27.3%
- Republicans 57.9%
- Other and no party 14.8%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 27.8%
- Republicans 57.6%
- Other and no party 14.6%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 39,584 | 83,063 | 21,645 | 144,292 |
| May 2026 primary | 39,038 | 82,884 | 21,249 | 143,171 |
| Nov 2024 election | 40,520 | 83,902 | 21,298 | 145,720 |
Republicans lead by 43,479, down from 43,846 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 68.0% of Butler's registered voters cast a governor vote, 7.6 points above the state. In 2024 it was 83.3%, 6.7 points above the state.
- Butler
- Statewide
Results by year
Mastriano carried Butler by 12.3 points in 2022, and Trump by 32.2 in 2024. Republicans carried it in all 6 elections.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 20,171 (36%) | Corbett | 35,818 (64%) | 0 | Corbett +27.9 | 122,109 | 45.9% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 28,584 (29%) | Trump | 64,428 (66%) | 4,059 | Trump +36.9 | 129,728 | 74.8% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 32,891 (41%) | Wagner | 45,242 (57%) | 1,578 | Wagner +15.5 | 128,457 | 62.0% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 37,508 (33%) | Trump | 74,359 (66%) | 1,438 | Trump +32.5 | 143,222 | 79.1% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 40,065 (43%) | Mastriano | 51,546 (55%) | 1,850 | Mastriano +12.3 | 137,344 | 68.0% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 40,661 (33%) | Trump | 79,773 (66%) | 1,006 | Trump +32.2 | 145,720 | 83.3% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 63.7% of the ballot in Butler. That is 8.5 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 2.0 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
55.2%
Wagner 2018 56.8% · Corbett 2014 64.0%
Trump 2024
65.7%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
63.7%
65.0% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+8.5 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+16,705
Over a 2022 replay, 2.1% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro lost Butler by 11,481 votes. At the target, on about 98,189 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 28,767 votes. That is 16,705 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Butler is 122,240, against 121,440 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That did not happen to a large degree here: no four-year span saw the roll fall 5% or more while votes held within 3%. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.