Counties · Rural rest
Columbia County
Columbia has 40,699 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 0.5% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 10,649, up from 10,092 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 40 other counties as “Rural rest.”
Registered now
40,699
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
10,649
D 29.1% · R 55.2% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−784
−1.9% from 41,483
Inactive
8.0%
37,436 active, 3,263 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here rose from 54.4% to 55.2% and the Democratic share fell from 30.1% to 29.1%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 29.1%
- Republicans 55.2%
- Other and no party 15.7%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 29.1%
- Republicans 55.3%
- Other and no party 15.6%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 30.1%
- Republicans 54.4%
- Other and no party 15.5%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 11,829 | 22,478 | 6,392 | 40,699 |
| May 2026 primary | 11,821 | 22,456 | 6,321 | 40,598 |
| Nov 2024 election | 12,481 | 22,573 | 6,429 | 41,483 |
Republicans lead by 10,649, up from 10,635 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 62.9% of Columbia's registered voters cast a governor vote, 2.5 points above the state. In 2024 it was 78.5%, 1.9 points above the state.
- Columbia
- Statewide
Results by year
Mastriano carried Columbia by 15.4 points in 2022, and Trump by 31.0 in 2024. Republicans carried it in all 6 elections.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 6,572 (43%) | Corbett | 8,585 (57%) | 0 | Corbett +13.3 | 37,591 | 40.3% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 8,934 (32%) | Trump | 18,004 (64%) | 1,290 | Trump +32.1 | 40,868 | 69.1% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 9,822 (43%) | Wagner | 12,424 (55%) | 392 | Wagner +11.5 | 38,672 | 58.5% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 10,532 (34%) | Trump | 20,098 (64%) | 541 | Trump +30.7 | 39,888 | 78.2% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 10,148 (41%) | Mastriano | 13,959 (57%) | 596 | Mastriano +15.4 | 39,247 | 62.9% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 11,083 (34%) | Trump | 21,190 (65%) | 303 | Trump +31.0 | 41,483 | 78.5% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 63.1% of the ballot in Columbia. That is 6.6 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 1.9 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
56.5%
Wagner 2018 54.9% · Corbett 2014 56.6%
Trump 2024
65.0%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
63.1%
64.7% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+6.6 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+3,374
Over a 2022 replay, 0.4% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro lost Columbia by 3,811 votes. At the target, on about 25,617 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 7,326 votes. That is 3,374 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Columbia is 32,981, against 32,576 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That did not happen to a large degree here: no four-year span saw the roll fall 5% or more while votes held within 3%. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.