Counties · Rural rest
Mifflin County
Mifflin has 27,218 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 0.3% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 13,262, up from 13,040 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 40 other counties as “Rural rest.”
Registered now
27,218
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
13,262
D 19.9% · R 68.6% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
+147
+0.5% from 27,071
Inactive
7.6%
25,147 active, 2,071 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here held at 68.6% and the Democratic share fell from 20.4% to 19.9%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 19.9%
- Republicans 68.6%
- Other and no party 11.5%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 19.8%
- Republicans 68.7%
- Other and no party 11.5%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 20.4%
- Republicans 68.6%
- Other and no party 11.1%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 5,409 | 18,671 | 3,138 | 27,218 |
| May 2026 primary | 5,366 | 18,631 | 3,114 | 27,111 |
| Nov 2024 election | 5,518 | 18,558 | 2,995 | 27,071 |
Republicans lead by 13,262, down from 13,265 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 63.2% of Mifflin's registered voters cast a governor vote, 2.8 points above the state. In 2024 it was 81.5%, 4.9 points above the state.
- Mifflin
- Statewide
Results by year
Mastriano carried Mifflin by 37.6 points in 2022, and Trump by 56.4 in 2024. Republicans carried it in all 6 elections.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 3,492 (32%) | Corbett | 7,318 (68%) | 0 | Corbett +35.4 | 24,265 | 44.5% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 3,877 (21%) | Trump | 14,094 (76%) | 630 | Trump +54.9 | 25,933 | 71.7% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 4,127 (30%) | Wagner | 9,408 (68%) | 210 | Wagner +38.4 | 24,705 | 55.6% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 4,603 (21%) | Trump | 16,670 (78%) | 229 | Trump +56.1 | 27,361 | 78.6% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 5,119 (30%) | Mastriano | 11,460 (68%) | 268 | Mastriano +37.6 | 26,643 | 63.2% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 4,735 (21%) | Trump | 17,184 (78%) | 152 | Trump +56.4 | 27,071 | 81.5% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 76.0% of the ballot in Mifflin. That is 7.9 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 1.9 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
68.0%
Wagner 2018 68.4% · Corbett 2014 67.7%
Trump 2024
77.9%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
76.0%
77.2% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+7.9 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+2,734
Over a 2022 replay, 0.3% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro lost Mifflin by 6,341 votes. At the target, on about 17,211 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 9,212 votes. That is 2,734 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Mifflin is 22,032, against 22,071 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That did not happen to a large degree here: no four-year span saw the roll fall 5% or more while votes held within 3%. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.