Counties · Rural rest
Montour County
Montour has 12,392 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 0.1% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 2,777, down from 2,794 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 40 other counties as “Rural rest.”
Registered now
12,392
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
2,777
D 30.6% · R 53.0% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−188
−1.5% from 12,580
Inactive
8.5%
11,343 active, 1,049 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here fell from 53.2% to 53.0% and the Democratic share fell from 31.0% to 30.6%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 30.6%
- Republicans 53.0%
- Other and no party 16.5%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 30.5%
- Republicans 53.3%
- Other and no party 16.2%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 31.0%
- Republicans 53.2%
- Other and no party 15.7%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 3,787 | 6,564 | 2,041 | 12,392 |
| May 2026 primary | 3,749 | 6,556 | 1,997 | 12,302 |
| Nov 2024 election | 3,903 | 6,697 | 1,980 | 12,580 |
Republicans lead by 2,777, down from 2,807 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 63.9% of Montour's registered voters cast a governor vote, 3.4 points above the state. In 2024 it was 78.8%, 2.1 points above the state.
- Montour
- Statewide
2020 to 2024: the roll shrank, not the vote. The roll fell 10.3% while president votes changed by only +1.4%. The turnout rate rose 9.1 points without more people voting.
Results by year
Mastriano carried Montour by 5.0 points in 2022, and Trump by 21.0 in 2024. Republicans carried it in all 6 elections.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 2,123 (42%) | Corbett | 2,900 (58%) | 0 | Corbett +15.5 | 12,095 | 41.5% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 2,857 (33%) | Trump | 5,288 (62%) | 411 | Trump +28.4 | 13,098 | 65.3% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 3,228 (46%) | Wagner | 3,642 (52%) | 145 | Wagner +5.9 | 13,226 | 53.0% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 3,771 (39%) | Trump | 5,844 (60%) | 156 | Trump +21.2 | 14,017 | 69.7% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 3,640 (46%) | Mastriano | 4,037 (51%) | 180 | Mastriano +5.0 | 12,301 | 63.9% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 3,862 (39%) | Trump | 5,944 (60%) | 102 | Trump +21.0 | 12,580 | 78.8% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 58.2% of the ballot in Montour. That is 6.8 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 1.8 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
51.4%
Wagner 2018 51.9% · Corbett 2014 57.7%
Trump 2024
60.0%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
58.2%
59.6% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+6.8 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+1,081
Over a 2022 replay, 0.1% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro lost Montour by 397 votes. At the target, on about 7,915 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 1,481 votes. That is 1,081 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Montour is 9,978, against 9,908 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That happened here; the turnout chart above explains when. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.