Counties · Rural rest
Northumberland County
Northumberland has 55,490 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 0.6% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 16,569, up from 16,211 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 40 other counties as “Rural rest.”
Registered now
55,490
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
16,569
D 27.7% · R 57.6% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−1,548
−2.7% from 57,038
Inactive
19.3%
44,785 active, 10,705 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here rose from 57.1% to 57.6% and the Democratic share fell from 28.7% to 27.7%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 27.7%
- Republicans 57.6%
- Other and no party 14.7%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 27.7%
- Republicans 57.8%
- Other and no party 14.5%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 28.7%
- Republicans 57.1%
- Other and no party 14.2%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 15,387 | 31,956 | 8,147 | 55,490 |
| May 2026 primary | 15,331 | 31,956 | 8,004 | 55,291 |
| Nov 2024 election | 16,363 | 32,574 | 8,101 | 57,038 |
Republicans lead by 16,569, down from 16,625 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 56.2% of Northumberland's registered voters cast a governor vote, 4.2 points below the state. In 2024 it was 76.3%, 0.3 points below the state.
- Northumberland
- Statewide
Results by year
Mastriano carried Northumberland by 21.4 points in 2022, and Trump by 39.9 in 2024. Democrats carried it in 1 of 6 elections and Republicans in 5.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 10,852 (50%) | Corbett | 10,666 (50%) | 0 | Wolf +0.9 | 53,473 | 40.2% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 9,788 (27%) | Trump | 25,427 (69%) | 1,407 | Trump +42.7 | 56,496 | 64.8% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 12,135 (42%) | Wagner | 16,122 (56%) | 564 | Wagner +13.8 | 52,785 | 54.6% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 12,752 (30%) | Trump | 29,266 (69%) | 657 | Trump +38.7 | 57,619 | 74.1% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 12,052 (37%) | Mastriano | 19,094 (58%) | 1,805 | Mastriano +21.4 | 58,631 | 56.2% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 12,863 (30%) | Trump | 30,240 (69%) | 419 | Trump +39.9 | 57,038 | 76.3% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 65.2% of the ballot in Northumberland. That is 7.3 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 4.3 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
57.9%
Wagner 2018 55.9% · Corbett 2014 49.6%
Trump 2024
69.5%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
65.2%
69.0% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+7.3 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+4,542
Over a 2022 replay, 0.6% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro lost Northumberland by 7,042 votes. At the target, on about 31,186 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 11,207 votes. That is 4,542 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Northumberland is 43,517, against 43,522 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That did not happen to a large degree here: no four-year span saw the roll fall 5% or more while votes held within 3%. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.