Counties · Rural rest
Union County
Union has 26,590 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 0.3% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 6,428, down from 6,542 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 40 other counties as “Rural rest.”
Registered now
26,590
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
6,428
D 29.9% · R 54.0% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−1,088
−3.9% from 27,678
Inactive
12.2%
23,334 active, 3,256 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here rose from 53.6% to 54.0% and the Democratic share held at 29.9%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 29.9%
- Republicans 54.0%
- Other and no party 16.1%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 29.5%
- Republicans 54.7%
- Other and no party 15.9%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 29.9%
- Republicans 53.6%
- Other and no party 16.5%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 7,939 | 14,367 | 4,284 | 26,590 |
| May 2026 primary | 7,768 | 14,414 | 4,185 | 26,367 |
| Nov 2024 election | 8,281 | 14,823 | 4,574 | 27,678 |
Republicans lead by 6,428, down from 6,646 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 61.3% of Union's registered voters cast a governor vote, 0.9 points above the state. In 2024 it was 76.5%, 0.1 points below the state.
- Union
- Statewide
Results by year
Mastriano carried Union by 12.4 points in 2022, and Trump by 23.4 in 2024. Republicans carried it in all 6 elections.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 4,784 (47%) | Corbett | 5,362 (53%) | 0 | Corbett +5.7 | 22,191 | 45.7% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 6,180 (35%) | Trump | 10,622 (61%) | 666 | Trump +25.4 | 24,668 | 70.8% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 6,426 (45%) | Wagner | 7,676 (53%) | 294 | Wagner +8.7 | 24,043 | 59.9% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 7,475 (37%) | Trump | 12,356 (61%) | 284 | Trump +24.3 | 26,259 | 76.6% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 6,898 (43%) | Mastriano | 8,897 (55%) | 318 | Mastriano +12.4 | 26,289 | 61.3% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 8,015 (38%) | Trump | 12,969 (61%) | 204 | Trump +23.4 | 27,678 | 76.5% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 59.9% of the ballot in Union. That is 4.7 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 1.3 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
55.2%
Wagner 2018 53.3% · Corbett 2014 52.8%
Trump 2024
61.2%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
59.9%
61.1% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+4.7 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+1,523
Over a 2022 replay, 0.2% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro lost Union by 1,999 votes. At the target, on about 16,297 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 3,545 votes. That is 1,523 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Union is 21,090, against 21,188 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That did not happen to a large degree here: no four-year span saw the roll fall 5% or more while votes held within 3%. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.