Counties · Rural rest
Warren County
Warren has 25,478 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 0.3% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 8,865, down from 8,928 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 40 other counties as “Rural rest.”
Registered now
25,478
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
8,865
D 25.0% · R 59.8% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−1,393
−5.2% from 26,871
Inactive
6.4%
23,849 active, 1,629 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here rose from 58.9% to 59.8% and the Democratic share fell from 25.7% to 25.0%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 25.0%
- Republicans 59.8%
- Other and no party 15.2%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 25.0%
- Republicans 60.0%
- Other and no party 15.0%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 25.7%
- Republicans 58.9%
- Other and no party 15.4%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 6,373 | 15,238 | 3,867 | 25,478 |
| May 2026 primary | 6,360 | 15,263 | 3,809 | 25,432 |
| Nov 2024 election | 6,906 | 15,834 | 4,131 | 26,871 |
Republicans lead by 8,865, down from 8,903 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 60.5% of Warren's registered voters cast a governor vote, the same as the state. In 2024 it was 77.1%, 0.5 points above the state.
- Warren
- Statewide
2020 to 2024: the roll shrank, not the vote. The roll fell 14.5% while president votes changed by only +0.4%. The turnout rate rose 11.4 points without more people voting.
Results by year
Mastriano carried Warren by 22.9 points in 2022, and Trump by 39.3 in 2024. Republicans carried it in all 6 elections.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 4,965 (44%) | Corbett | 6,194 (56%) | 0 | Corbett +11.0 | 29,031 | 38.4% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 5,145 (28%) | Trump | 12,477 (68%) | 812 | Trump +39.8 | 30,146 | 61.1% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 5,447 (38%) | Wagner | 8,766 (61%) | 270 | Wagner +22.9 | 30,190 | 48.0% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 6,066 (29%) | Trump | 14,237 (69%) | 347 | Trump +39.6 | 31,431 | 65.7% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 6,032 (38%) | Mastriano | 9,704 (60%) | 328 | Mastriano +22.9 | 26,569 | 60.5% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 6,212 (30%) | Trump | 14,345 (69%) | 166 | Trump +39.3 | 26,871 | 77.1% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 67.3% of the ballot in Warren. That is 6.9 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 1.9 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
60.4%
Wagner 2018 60.5% · Corbett 2014 55.5%
Trump 2024
69.2%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
67.3%
68.7% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+6.9 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+2,131
Over a 2022 replay, 0.3% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro lost Warren by 3,672 votes. At the target, on about 15,404 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 5,652 votes. That is 2,131 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Warren is 20,896, against 20,723 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That happened here; the turnout chart above explains when. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.