Counties · Rural rest
Carbon County
Carbon has 45,851 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 0.5% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 9,837, up from 8,985 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 40 other counties as “Rural rest.”
Registered now
45,851
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
9,837
D 30.8% · R 52.2% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−162
−0.4% from 46,013
Inactive
8.3%
42,064 active, 3,787 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here rose from 51.7% to 52.2% and the Democratic share fell from 32.1% to 30.8%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 30.8%
- Republicans 52.2%
- Other and no party 17.0%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 30.9%
- Republicans 52.3%
- Other and no party 16.8%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 32.1%
- Republicans 51.7%
- Other and no party 16.2%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 14,112 | 23,949 | 7,790 | 45,851 |
| May 2026 primary | 14,074 | 23,862 | 7,646 | 45,582 |
| Nov 2024 election | 14,787 | 23,772 | 7,454 | 46,013 |
Republicans lead by 9,837, up from 9,788 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 59.4% of Carbon's registered voters cast a governor vote, 1.0 points below the state. In 2024 it was 76.9%, 0.3 points above the state.
- Carbon
- Statewide
Results by year
Mastriano carried Carbon by 16.0 points in 2022, and Trump by 34.8 in 2024. Democrats carried it in 1 of 6 elections and Republicans in 5.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 9,163 (54%) | Corbett | 7,864 (46%) | 0 | Wolf +7.6 | 38,738 | 44.0% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 8,936 (31%) | Trump | 18,743 (65%) | 1,097 | Trump +34.1 | 42,228 | 68.1% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 9,659 (43%) | Wagner | 12,476 (55%) | 407 | Wagner +12.5 | 43,179 | 52.2% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 11,212 (33%) | Trump | 21,984 (65%) | 433 | Trump +32.0 | 46,981 | 71.6% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 10,743 (41%) | Mastriano | 14,943 (57%) | 578 | Mastriano +16.0 | 44,216 | 59.4% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 11,394 (32%) | Trump | 23,708 (67%) | 293 | Trump +34.8 | 46,013 | 76.9% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 64.9% of the ballot in Carbon. That is 8.0 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 2.1 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
56.9%
Wagner 2018 55.3% · Corbett 2014 46.2%
Trump 2024
67.0%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
64.9%
66.4% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+8.0 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+4,342
Over a 2022 replay, 0.5% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro lost Carbon by 4,200 votes. At the target, on about 27,235 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 8,697 votes. That is 4,342 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Carbon is 35,289, against 35,395 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That did not happen to a large degree here: no four-year span saw the roll fall 5% or more while votes held within 3%. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.