Counties · Swing metros
Centre County
Centre has 102,972 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 1.1% of the state's roll. Democrats lead by 185, down from 969 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 4 other counties as “Swing metros.”
Registered now
102,972
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Democratic lead
185
D 40.8% · R 40.7% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−6,884
−6.3% from 109,856
Inactive
14.8%
87,742 active, 15,230 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here rose from 40.3% to 40.7% and the Democratic share fell from 41.2% to 40.8%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 40.8%
- Republicans 40.7%
- Other and no party 18.5%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 40.6%
- Republicans 41.1%
- Other and no party 18.3%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 41.2%
- Republicans 40.3%
- Other and no party 18.5%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 42,054 | 41,869 | 19,049 | 102,972 |
| May 2026 primary | 41,462 | 41,898 | 18,690 | 102,050 |
| Nov 2024 election | 45,256 | 44,287 | 20,313 | 109,856 |
Democrats lead by 185. Republicans led by 436 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 57.7% of Centre's registered voters cast a governor vote, 2.7 points below the state. In 2024 it was 73.5%, 3.1 points below the state.
- Centre
- Statewide
2016 to 2020: the roll shrank, not the vote. The roll fell 9.1% while president votes changed by only +1.8%. The turnout rate rose 7.4 points without more people voting.
Results by year
Shapiro carried Centre by 16.9 points in 2022, and Harris by 2.8 in 2024. Democrats carried it in all 6 elections.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 22,393 (58%) | Corbett | 16,489 (42%) | 0 | Wolf +15.2 | 108,212 | 35.9% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 37,088 (49%) | Trump | 35,274 (46%) | 3,786 | Clinton +2.4 | 123,341 | 61.7% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 34,961 (58%) | Wagner | 24,353 (40%) | 1,364 | Wolf +17.5 | 111,132 | 54.6% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 40,055 (52%) | Trump | 36,372 (47%) | 1,066 | Biden +4.8 | 112,098 | 69.1% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 35,653 (57%) | Mastriano | 25,201 (41%) | 1,163 | Shapiro +16.9 | 107,460 | 57.7% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 41,119 (51%) | Trump | 38,829 (48%) | 844 | Harris +2.8 | 109,856 | 73.5% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 46.7% of the ballot in Centre. That is 6.1 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 1.4 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
40.6%
Wagner 2018 40.1% · Corbett 2014 42.4%
Trump 2024
48.1%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
46.7%
47.6% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+6.1 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+7,263
Over a 2022 replay, 0.9% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro won Centre by 10,452 votes. At the target, on about 59,427 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would still lose the county by 2,753 votes. That is 7,263 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Centre is 81,377, against 80,792 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That happened here; the turnout chart above explains when. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.