Counties · South-central GOP base
Cumberland County
Cumberland has 185,294 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 2.0% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 25,816, down from 28,279 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 5 other counties as “South-central GOP base.”
Registered now
185,294
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
25,816
D 33.8% · R 47.7% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−2,020
−1.1% from 187,314
Inactive
7.1%
172,078 active, 13,216 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here fell from 48.8% to 47.7% and the Democratic share rose from 33.7% to 33.8%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 33.8%
- Republicans 47.7%
- Other and no party 18.5%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 33.5%
- Republicans 48.4%
- Other and no party 18.1%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 33.7%
- Republicans 48.8%
- Other and no party 17.4%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 62,581 | 88,397 | 34,316 | 185,294 |
| May 2026 primary | 61,206 | 88,443 | 33,111 | 182,760 |
| Nov 2024 election | 63,195 | 91,474 | 32,645 | 187,314 |
Republicans lead by 25,816, down from 27,237 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 62.2% of Cumberland's registered voters cast a governor vote, 1.8 points above the state. In 2024 it was 79.2%, 2.6 points above the state.
- Cumberland
- Statewide
Results by year
Shapiro carried Cumberland by 7.8 points in 2022, and Trump by 9.4 in 2024. Democrats carried it in 2 of 6 elections and Republicans in 4.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 31,311 (42%) | Corbett | 43,625 (58%) | 0 | Corbett +16.4 | 151,050 | 49.6% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 47,085 (39%) | Trump | 69,076 (57%) | 5,456 | Trump +18.1 | 166,965 | 72.8% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 52,807 (51%) | Wagner | 49,496 (47%) | 2,175 | Wolf +3.2 | 172,256 | 60.6% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 62,245 (44%) | Trump | 77,212 (55%) | 2,138 | Trump +10.6 | 187,257 | 75.6% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 61,319 (53%) | Mastriano | 52,280 (45%) | 2,403 | Shapiro +7.8 | 186,426 | 62.2% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 66,255 (45%) | Trump | 80,267 (54%) | 1,874 | Trump +9.4 | 187,314 | 79.2% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 52.5% of the ballot in Cumberland. That is 7.5 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 1.6 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
45.1%
Wagner 2018 47.4% · Corbett 2014 58.2%
Trump 2024
54.1%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
52.5%
53.6% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+7.5 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+17,216
Over a 2022 replay, 2.1% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro won Cumberland by 9,039 votes. At the target, on about 115,298 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 8,232 votes. That is 17,216 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Cumberland is 149,731, against 148,396 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That did not happen to a large degree here: no four-year span saw the roll fall 5% or more while votes held within 3%. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.