Counties · Swing metros
Dauphin County
Dauphin has 202,747 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 2.2% of the state's roll. Democrats lead by 11,468, up from 9,742 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 4 other counties as “Swing metros.”
Registered now
202,747
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Democratic lead
11,468
D 43.1% · R 37.5% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−1,004
−0.5% from 203,751
Inactive
9.4%
183,623 active, 19,124 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here fell from 38.7% to 37.5% and the Democratic share fell from 43.5% to 43.1%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 43.1%
- Republicans 37.5%
- Other and no party 19.4%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 42.9%
- Republicans 38.2%
- Other and no party 18.9%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 43.5%
- Republicans 38.7%
- Other and no party 17.9%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 87,402 | 75,934 | 39,411 | 202,747 |
| May 2026 primary | 85,625 | 76,258 | 37,705 | 199,588 |
| Nov 2024 election | 88,560 | 78,818 | 36,373 | 203,751 |
Democrats lead by 11,468, up from 9,367 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 58.7% of Dauphin's registered voters cast a governor vote, 1.8 points below the state. In 2024 it was 73.4%, 3.2 points below the state.
- Dauphin
- Statewide
Results by year
Shapiro carried Dauphin by 21.9 points in 2022, and Harris by 5.9 in 2024. Democrats carried it in all 6 elections.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 40,376 (51%) | Corbett | 39,111 (49%) | 0 | Wolf +1.6 | 174,855 | 45.5% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 64,706 (49%) | Trump | 60,863 (47%) | 5,303 | Clinton +2.9 | 190,301 | 68.8% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 64,045 (59%) | Wagner | 42,436 (39%) | 2,068 | Wolf +19.9 | 185,853 | 58.4% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 78,983 (54%) | Trump | 66,408 (45%) | 1,977 | Biden +8.5 | 197,820 | 74.5% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 68,585 (60%) | Mastriano | 43,580 (38%) | 2,233 | Shapiro +21.9 | 194,962 | 58.7% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 78,327 (52%) | Trump | 69,474 (46%) | 1,725 | Harris +5.9 | 203,751 | 73.4% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 45.1% of the ballot in Dauphin. That is 7.0 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 1.4 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
38.1%
Wagner 2018 39.1% · Corbett 2014 49.2%
Trump 2024
46.5%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
45.1%
46.0% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+7.0 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+16,550
Over a 2022 replay, 2.1% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro won Dauphin by 25,005 votes. At the target, on about 118,966 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would still lose the county by 9,453 votes. That is 16,550 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Dauphin is 150,393, against 149,526 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That did not happen to a large degree here: no four-year span saw the roll fall 5% or more while votes held within 3%. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.