Counties · Swing metros
Erie County
Erie has 175,321 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 1.9% of the state's roll. Democrats lead by 5,966, down from 8,772 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 4 other counties as “Swing metros.”
Registered now
175,321
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Democratic lead
5,966
D 43.8% · R 40.4% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−7,716
−4.2% from 183,037
Inactive
9.3%
158,995 active, 16,326 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here rose from 39.9% to 40.4% and the Democratic share fell from 44.7% to 43.8%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 43.8%
- Republicans 40.4%
- Other and no party 15.8%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 43.8%
- Republicans 40.6%
- Other and no party 15.6%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 44.7%
- Republicans 39.9%
- Other and no party 15.4%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 76,803 | 70,837 | 27,681 | 175,321 |
| May 2026 primary | 76,605 | 71,049 | 27,327 | 174,981 |
| Nov 2024 election | 81,825 | 73,053 | 28,159 | 183,037 |
Democrats lead by 5,966, up from 5,556 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 59.1% of Erie's registered voters cast a governor vote, 1.4 points below the state. In 2024 it was 75.2%, 1.5 points below the state.
- Erie
- Statewide
2020 to 2024: the roll shrank, not the vote. The roll fell 9.7% while president votes changed by only +0.4%. The turnout rate rose 7.5 points without more people voting.
Results by year
Shapiro carried Erie by 21.4 points in 2022, and Trump by 1.0 in 2024. Democrats carried it in 4 of 6 elections and Republicans in 2.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 42,115 (58%) | Corbett | 30,389 (42%) | 0 | Wolf +16.2 | 178,160 | 40.7% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 58,112 (47%) | Trump | 60,069 (49%) | 5,498 | Trump +1.6 | 190,222 | 65.0% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 60,790 (60%) | Wagner | 39,387 (39%) | 1,534 | Wolf +21.0 | 191,910 | 53.0% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 68,286 (50%) | Trump | 66,869 (49%) | 1,928 | Biden +1.0 | 202,689 | 67.6% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 63,081 (60%) | Mastriano | 40,433 (38%) | 2,085 | Shapiro +21.4 | 178,775 | 59.1% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 67,456 (49%) | Trump | 68,866 (50%) | 1,273 | Trump +1.0 | 183,037 | 75.2% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 48.1% of the ballot in Erie. That is 9.8 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 1.9 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
38.3%
Wagner 2018 38.7% · Corbett 2014 41.9%
Trump 2024
50.0%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
48.1%
49.1% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+9.8 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+20,243
Over a 2022 replay, 2.5% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro won Erie by 22,648 votes. At the target, on about 103,559 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would still lose the county by 1,967 votes. That is 20,243 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Erie is 138,238, against 137,595 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That happened here; the turnout chart above explains when. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.