Counties · Pittsburgh ring
Fayette County
Fayette has 79,669 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 0.9% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 11,867, up from 8,931 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 4 other counties as “Pittsburgh ring.”
Registered now
79,669
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
11,867
D 37.0% · R 51.9% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−2,485
−3.0% from 82,154
Inactive
7.8%
73,454 active, 6,215 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here rose from 50.1% to 51.9% and the Democratic share fell from 39.2% to 37.0%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 37.0%
- Republicans 51.9%
- Other and no party 11.1%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 37.2%
- Republicans 51.9%
- Other and no party 10.9%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 39.2%
- Republicans 50.1%
- Other and no party 10.7%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 29,484 | 41,351 | 8,834 | 79,669 |
| May 2026 primary | 29,619 | 41,290 | 8,667 | 79,576 |
| Nov 2024 election | 32,218 | 41,149 | 8,787 | 82,154 |
Republicans lead by 11,867, up from 11,671 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 59.0% of Fayette's registered voters cast a governor vote, 1.4 points below the state. In 2024 it was 77.3%, 0.6 points above the state.
- Fayette
- Statewide
Results by year
Mastriano carried Fayette by 12.9 points in 2022, and Trump by 38.0 in 2024. Democrats carried it in 1 of 6 elections and Republicans in 5.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 18,029 (58%) | Corbett | 13,086 (42%) | 0 | Wolf +15.9 | 80,718 | 38.5% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 17,946 (33%) | Trump | 34,590 (64%) | 1,231 | Trump +31.0 | 83,852 | 64.1% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 19,791 (48%) | Wagner | 20,471 (50%) | 647 | Wagner +1.7 | 78,208 | 52.3% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 20,454 (33%) | Trump | 41,243 (66%) | 468 | Trump +33.4 | 82,380 | 75.5% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 20,120 (43%) | Mastriano | 26,165 (56%) | 592 | Mastriano +12.9 | 79,461 | 59.0% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 19,548 (31%) | Trump | 43,633 (69%) | 291 | Trump +38.0 | 82,154 | 77.3% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 66.6% of the ballot in Fayette. That is 10.8 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 2.1 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
55.8%
Wagner 2018 50.0% · Corbett 2014 42.1%
Trump 2024
68.7%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
66.6%
67.5% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+10.8 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+10,121
Over a 2022 replay, 1.3% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro lost Fayette by 6,045 votes. At the target, on about 47,000 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 16,182 votes. That is 10,121 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Fayette is 63,717, against 63,472 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That did not happen to a large degree here: no four-year span saw the roll fall 5% or more while votes held within 3%. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.