Counties · Swing metros
Luzerne County
Luzerne has 209,132 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 2.3% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 4,392, up from 2,688 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 4 other counties as “Swing metros.”
Registered now
209,132
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
4,392
D 41.3% · R 43.4% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−556
−0.3% from 209,688
Inactive
9.2%
189,914 active, 19,218 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here fell from 43.6% to 43.4% and the Democratic share fell from 42.3% to 41.3%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 41.3%
- Republicans 43.4%
- Other and no party 15.2%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 40.8%
- Republicans 44.2%
- Other and no party 15.0%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 42.3%
- Republicans 43.6%
- Other and no party 14.1%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 86,424 | 90,816 | 31,892 | 209,132 |
| May 2026 primary | 84,161 | 91,244 | 30,933 | 206,338 |
| Nov 2024 election | 88,747 | 91,435 | 29,506 | 209,688 |
Republicans lead by 4,392, down from 7,083 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 56.7% of Luzerne's registered voters cast a governor vote, 3.7 points below the state. In 2024 it was 74.5%, 2.2 points below the state.
- Luzerne
- Statewide
2020 to 2024: the roll shrank, not the vote. The roll fell 5.1% while president votes changed by only +1.8%. The turnout rate rose 5.1 points without more people voting.
Results by year
Shapiro carried Luzerne by 1.1 points in 2022, and Trump by 19.2 in 2024. Democrats carried it in 3 of 6 elections and Republicans in 3.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 41,609 (56%) | Corbett | 32,605 (44%) | 0 | Wolf +12.1 | 196,129 | 37.8% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 52,451 (39%) | Trump | 78,688 (58%) | 3,844 | Trump +19.4 | 205,332 | 65.7% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 55,734 (52%) | Wagner | 50,701 (47%) | 1,388 | Wolf +4.7 | 207,513 | 52.0% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 64,873 (42%) | Trump | 86,929 (57%) | 1,519 | Trump +14.4 | 220,888 | 69.4% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 57,598 (50%) | Mastriano | 56,326 (49%) | 2,140 | Shapiro +1.1 | 204,548 | 56.7% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 62,504 (40%) | Trump | 92,444 (59%) | 1,202 | Trump +19.2 | 209,688 | 74.5% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 57.3% of the ballot in Luzerne. That is 8.7 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 1.9 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
48.5%
Wagner 2018 47.0% · Corbett 2014 43.9%
Trump 2024
59.2%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
57.3%
58.4% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+8.7 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+20,719
Over a 2022 replay, 2.6% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro won Luzerne by 1,272 votes. At the target, on about 118,665 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 19,419 votes. That is 20,719 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Luzerne is 154,975, against 156,150 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That happened here; the turnout chart above explains when. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.