Counties · Rural rest
Jefferson County
Jefferson has 28,229 registered voters as of Oct 19, 2026, 0.3% of the state's roll. Republicans lead by 14,009, up from 13,942 at the November 2024 election. The scenario model groups it with 40 other counties as “Rural rest.”
Registered now
28,229
All parties, Oct 19, 2026
Republican lead
14,009
D 19.4% · R 69.0% of the roll
Since Nov 2024
−570
−2.0% from 28,799
Inactive
7.3%
26,180 active, 2,049 inactive
Registration by party
Since Nov 2024 the Republican share here rose from 68.6% to 69.0% and the Democratic share fell from 20.2% to 19.4%.
Now (Oct 19, 2026)
- Democrats 19.4%
- Republicans 69.0%
- Other and no party 11.6%
May 2026 primary
- Democrats 19.3%
- Republicans 69.3%
- Other and no party 11.4%
Nov 2024 election
- Democrats 20.2%
- Republicans 68.6%
- Other and no party 11.3%
| When | Dem | Rep | Other | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now (Oct 19, 2026) | 5,477 | 19,486 | 3,266 | 28,229 |
| May 2026 primary | 5,430 | 19,465 | 3,207 | 28,102 |
| Nov 2024 election | 5,808 | 19,750 | 3,241 | 28,799 |
Republicans lead by 14,009, down from 14,035 at the May primary.
Turnout, 2014–2024
In 2022, 63.4% of Jefferson's registered voters cast a governor vote, 2.9 points above the state. In 2024 it was 80.3%, 3.7 points above the state.
- Jefferson
- Statewide
2020 to 2024: the roll shrank, not the vote. The roll fell 10.1% while president votes changed by only +1.3%. The turnout rate rose 9.1 points without more people voting.
Results by year
Mastriano carried Jefferson by 41.5 points in 2022, and Trump by 58.5 in 2024. Republicans carried it in all 6 elections.
| Election | Democrat | Votes | Republican | Votes | Other | Margin | Registered | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 governor | Wolf | 4,375 (37%) | Corbett | 7,458 (63%) | 0 | Corbett +26.1 | 28,673 | 41.3% |
| 2016 president | Clinton | 3,650 (19%) | Trump | 15,192 (78%) | 636 | Trump +59.3 | 29,926 | 65.1% |
| 2018 governor | Wolf | 4,277 (27%) | Wagner | 11,036 (71%) | 261 | Wagner +43.4 | 29,806 | 52.3% |
| 2020 president | Biden | 4,527 (20%) | Trump | 17,960 (79%) | 337 | Trump +58.9 | 32,040 | 71.2% |
| 2022 governor | Shapiro | 5,038 (28%) | Mastriano | 12,433 (70%) | 349 | Mastriano +41.5 | 28,126 | 63.4% |
| 2024 president | Harris | 4,707 (20%) | Trump | 18,235 (79%) | 187 | Trump +58.5 | 28,799 | 80.3% |
What Garrity needs here
On the smallest uniform path to a statewide tie, Garrity needs 76.9% of the ballot in Jefferson. That is 7.1 points more than Mastriano won in 2022, and 1.9 points below Trump's 2024 share.
Mastriano 2022
69.8%
Wagner 2018 70.9% · Corbett 2014 63.0%
Trump 2024
78.8%
Share of the presidential ballot
Tie-path target
76.9%
78.4% of the two-party vote
Gain over Mastriano
+7.1 pts
Share of the ballot
Net votes needed
+2,539
Over a 2022 replay, 0.3% of the statewide gap
In 2022 Shapiro lost Jefferson by 7,395 votes. At the target, on about 17,885 ballots at 2022 turnout on today's roll, Garrity would carry the county by 9,961 votes. That is 2,539 net votes better for her than a 2022 replay on the same roll.
How turnout is measured
Turnout is votes in the top race divided by registered voters. The top race is governor in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and president in 2016, 2020 and 2024. The state's returns files have no total-ballots count, so this undercounts by the roughly 1% who skip the top race.
The state's own 2024 count of people who voted in Jefferson is 23,189, against 23,129 presidential votes.
A turnout rate can rise because the roll shrank, not because more people voted. That happened here; the turnout chart above explains when. Warren is the clearest case statewide: 20,650 presidential votes in 2020 and 20,723 in 2024 on a roll that fell from 31,431 to 26,871.